As my mind was coming to grips with Mr. Trump seizing the White House, my thoughts instantly went to the multiple scenarios that could play out on the Korean Peninsula and surrounding areas. His speeches about this subject during his campaigning vastly differ from Clinton’s promises of intensified pressure for denuclearization and provoking Kim Jong-Un, forcing President Xi Jinping of China to ball up his fist and prepare for war.
The first narrative details Trump possibly following suit on Obama’s pressure during his tenure as Commander in Chief; however, that seems like highly unlikely after hearing a few key things from Trump’s discussion on the Nuclear Exit Strategy, which has been looming over several past presidents for quite some time now.
During one of his discussions, Trump stated that he would love to see Japan and Korea armed with nuclear missiles and then left to defend for themselves, after pulling out the US military presence in both Japan and Korea for the first time in over 60 years. After making statements about arming these countries with nuclear weapons, Trump goes on to state “If they fight, you know what, that’d be a terrible thing. Terrible. … But if they do, they do.”
Trump has little to zero knowledge in dealing with international affairs and the thought of him slamming his fist in the oval office and creating a second Cuban Missile Crisis makes me cringe. After hearing the North Korean government repeatedly stating, “We’ll shut down our nuclear program when America pulls out of the Korean Peninsula and stops provoking us,” President Xi Jinping may well be on board with this.
Even though Trump leaves snarky comments towards Jinping, such as “I would not be throwing him a dinner. I would get him a Mcdonald’s Hamburger and say we’ve got to get down to work,” he can’t continue to devalue Xi Jinping.
Jinping has still been on board with the Don for the most part regardless of Trump stating that “China, they don’t like to tell us but they have total control — just about, of North Korea. They can solve the problem of North Korea if they wanted to, but they taunt us.” Jinping would continue to please Trump to get what he wants, and he can do this by getting North Korea to pipe down. Chinese and North Korean ties are the lowest they’ve ever been since the Korean war, despite repeatedly telling the North to shut down their nuclear program and continue to focus on rebuilding their crumbling economy.
This would be one of the best bets of denuclearization if Trump wasn’t dealing with one of the most erratic leaders in the world with one of the hairiest trigger fingers. Trump isn’t dealing with a reasonable man or a reasonable government. He would be facing-off with Kim Jong-Un, the president of the last standing Stalinist regime on the planet.
Jong-Un is a man who leads a country infamous for taking pride in nuclear warheads and military. His government swears up and down that mass starvation, internment camps, and kidnapping are lies made up by the rest of the world to help vanquish the jealousy for those that have the privilege of living in the socialist utopia of North Korea.
Kim Jong-Un on the other hand isn’t showing much animosity towards Trump at all. In fact, North Korea State Media stated that, “It turns out that Trump is not the rough-talking, screwy ignorant candidate that they say he is, but is actually a wise politician and a great presidential candidate.”
Trump even went so far as to give Kim Jong-Un credit for taking out his uncle and a few other high North Korean officials stating that, “We certainly can’t mess with him.” With all of this respect between Trump and the leaders of Communist and Socialist countries, a happy ending could turn out, or a nuclear holocaust could unfold depending on who does what.
One of the key factors in the Korean nuke bonanza narrative that has the potential of happening starts in Seoul, South Korea, where President Park was just accused of sharing sensitive, classified emails and data with a friend who he felt could handle the info and use it for religious purposes for the better of the nation. South Korea’s rapid economy is starting to stagnate as people grow restless with the carelessness and old ideologies of their president.
If President Park were to be impeached, a new leader elected, and the US military presence in Korea gone, Kim Jong-Un would have the perfect opportunity to stop the façade of wanting to play fair with Trump. He could then launch his nukes into Seoul directly at a new president and begin the conquest for a completely unified Korea under his rule, just like his grandfather Kim Il Sung has always wanted.
For this to happen, Kim Jong-Un would have to completely ignore the UN on all fronts (which he is currently doing anyway), and bypass China’s desire for nuclear peace. If this scenario does play out, China would most likely stop all legal funding and trade with North Korea while the rest of the world sits and watches a large army with old equipment duel it out with the much smaller South Korean military, which has state of the art defense equipment and Trump’s nukes ready to go.
Naturally, this would cause absolute destruction to the peninsula, with leaders like Putin sitting back, grabbing some popcorn, and enjoying the show. In this scenario, the US presence in Japan would also be gone leaving Shinzo Abe to press his nuke button, terrified that Kim and company would be gunning for him next.
Of course, there is a possibility of a happy ending with Donald Trump, Kim Jong-Un, Xi Jinping, and Putin all being one big happy family – Kim Jong-Un simply has to completely flip the script and not launch his Nukes. There is a possibility of everyone having open agreements towards finally changing the Korean War Armistice into a peace treaty, Kim Jong-Un denuclearizing his country in favor of boosting his economy, and Trump green-lighting more US investment into the North Korean economy while thawing the cold ties between the both.
It’s actually quite hard to predict what could happen. With Trump only just claiming the win, we have yet to see how he’ll manage on the international stage. It’s already a proven fact that Kim Jong-Un isn’t afraid to completely belittle other world leaders as he had done so all throughout Obama’s second presidential term.
Trump has a bit of a big mouth, as well as the ability to strike fear into Liberals and American passion into Conservatives. He accomplishes this through his uncensored speech and obnoxious confidence that allows him to claim he is the “right man for the job.” Trump has a big mouth and even bigger ambitions. Let’s just hope he can stick to his guns and do whatever it takes to prevent Kim Jong-Un from sending missiles over the Pacific.
Photo Credits: Donald Trump, Kim Jong-Un, New Yorker cover, Featured
Citations: Trump’s statements regarding China
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